Last week a Hillsborough seller asked me a fair question: “Is this still a seller’s market, or is the inventory bump finally cracking it?” I get a version of that call every spring. So I pulled the numbers — Burlingame, Hillsborough, and San Carlos — and the picture is sharper than most of the headlines you’ll read this quarter.
Here’s the short version of the San Mateo County real estate forecast for 2026: median price is at $2,625,000 through March, up 3% year-over-year, and 74% of single-family homes are still closing over ask. Inventory is up roughly 18% on the Peninsula versus last year — but well-prepared listings are still moving in 7–10 days. That combination doesn’t mean the market is cooling. It means the market is rewarding preparation and punishing shortcuts.
I’ve sold homes here through seven down markets in 24 years. Q2 2026 isn’t one of them. What it is, is a market that’s getting more selective.
Burlingame: Up 26% Year-Over-Year — and Why That Number Is a Trap
Burlingame’s median is sitting at $2.8M, up 26.1% from the same month last year. That number gets quoted a lot. It also misleads sellers.
The 26% isn’t a uniform lift across every block. It’s concentrated in renovated single-family homes inside the Easton Addition, Burlingables, and Ray Park — the blocks where buyers are still writing escalation clauses at 5–8% over list. Tear-down lots and unrenovated mid-century homes on the wrong block are getting one offer, sometimes zero, and sitting for 18 days.
The lesson: Burlingame home prices in 2026 aren’t one market. They’re three. Renovated and turn-key, tear-down land plays, and the awkward middle. The middle is where sellers are losing money this quarter.
Here’s how I help: Before I list a Burlingame home, I walk the block twice — 7am and 7pm — and run comps against the three sub-markets independently. That’s how I tell a seller whether to invest $40K in pre-listing prep or take the land-value play.
Hillsborough: Flat at $5.99M — But Days on Market Tell a Different Story
Hillsborough’s median is essentially flat year-over-year at $5.99M. The headline says “stable.” The deal-by-deal data says something more interesting: days on market are stretching. Homes that needed 11 days to sell last spring are now needing 19–24 days. Pricing discipline matters more here than anywhere else on the Peninsula.
I had a client last month who wanted to list at $4.4M. The strict comp set said $4.2M. We held at $4.2M, drew three offers in eight days, and closed at $4.385M. The neighbor who listed at $4.4M two weeks later is on day 22, just dropped to $4.275M, and will likely close below where my client landed.
That’s the Hillsborough real estate market right now. Buyers have more inventory and more patience. They will not chase aspirational pricing.
Here’s how I help: I run a strict comp-pull every Sunday night before a Hillsborough Tuesday list. If the price isn’t supported by three closed comps inside 90 days, I push back on the seller. Top 9% of Coldwell Banker globally didn’t happen by listing emotionally.
San Carlos: The 7-Offer Market That’s Quietly Outperforming Everyone
San Carlos doesn’t get the press Burlingame and Hillsborough get. It probably should. The median is at $2.825M, and the well-prepared listings — especially anything walkable to Laurel Street or zoned to the San Carlos Unified feeder pattern — are still drawing 5 to 7 offers.
The reason is simple: the school district is its own unified system, and buyers will pay a premium to lock that in. That premium isn’t fading. If anything, it’s widening as Belmont and Redwood City competition gets harder to navigate.
If you’re a San Carlos seller this quarter, the 21-day pre-listing window is your single biggest lever. Stage by day 7, photos by day 14, list by day 21. I’ve watched that window add 4–6% to final price on three different blocks since March.
What the 18% Inventory Bump Actually Means for Your Move
More inventory is not the same as a buyer’s market. It is a more selective market. For sellers, it means preparation, pricing discipline, and a real strategy — not a sign-in-the-yard approach. For buyers, it means the panic-bidding from 2024 is finally easing, but the well-priced homes still go in a week.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What’s the median home price in San Mateo County right now?
$2,625,000 as of end of March 2026, up 3% year-over-year. That’s countywide. Individual cities range from $2.5M in Belmont to nearly $6M in Hillsborough.
Q: Are Burlingame home prices still going up?
Yes — but the 26% year-over-year lift is concentrated in renovated homes on premium blocks. Tear-down lots and unrenovated middle-tier homes are appreciating much more slowly.
Q: Is Hillsborough a good place to buy in 2026?
For long-hold luxury buyers, yes. The flat median masks a more patient market that finally rewards careful negotiation. I’m getting real terms for buyers on Hillsborough escrows this spring for the first time in three years.
Q: How long do Peninsula homes take to sell?
Well-prepared listings still close in 7–10 days. Poorly prepped homes — wrong price, weak photos, no pre-inspection — are sitting 18–24+ days. The gap is widening.
Ready to Make a Move on the Peninsula?
If you’re considering a sale or purchase in Burlingame, Hillsborough, San Carlos, or anywhere in San Mateo County this quarter, the strategy you bring matters more than it has in three years. I’d be glad to run a free Peninsula home valuation or a buyer-side strategy session — no pressure, no list-me-tomorrow energy.
Call me directly at (650) 576-9565 or schedule a consultation at marktauber.com. The Mark Tauber Blog covers Peninsula market reads weekly — keep an eye out for the May 2026 video briefing next week.
Sources and further reading
- MLSListings — the multiple listing service covering San Mateo County, and the source for local median price and days-on-market figures.
- California Association of Realtors — statewide housing market data and monthly sales reports.
About the Author:
I’m Mark Tauber, a real estate broker based in Burlingame with 24+ years of SF Peninsula experience. I’m in the top 9% of Coldwell Banker agents internationally and work with buyers and sellers across San Mateo County — Burlingame, Hillsborough, San Carlos, Belmont, Redwood City, and Half Moon Bay. I write The Mark Tauber Blog to share what I’m seeing in the market in real time, not in quarterly recaps.
